[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 February 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 12 10:53:29 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Feb:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Feb:  94/40

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Feb             13 Feb             14 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    94/40              95/41              95/41

COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the the last 24 hours. Active 
region 1045 (N22W53) magnetic complexity has simplified to Beta. 
Active region 1046 (N23E14) magnetic structure is growing in 
complexity. Both regions are capable of producing B and C class 
flares over the next three days. There is only a slight chance 
for an M class x-ray flare and it is most likely to come from 
the growing AR 1046. The solar wind increased from 290 to 380 
(possibly due to passing plasma cloud) early in the UT day 11 
February and has remain in this range since. It is expected to 
remain in this vicinity until late in the UT day 13 February 
when it is expected to elevate slightly to just over 400km/s 
due to a recurrent coronal. The Bz component of the interplanetary 
magnetic field was southward early in the UT day and turned mostly 
northward at approximately 0500UT. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Feb: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22223212
      Darwin               8   32223212
      Townsville           7   22223211
      Learmonth            8   32223212
      Canberra             3   12112100
      Hobart               7   23212212
      Casey(Ant)           8   ---22223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1111 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Feb     4    Quiet 
13 Feb     6    Quiet to Unsettled 
14 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the UT day 
with an isolated Unsettled to Actived periods early in the UT 
day at high latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the 
next three days with a possibility of isolated cases of Unsettled 
to Active levels of geomagnetic activity late on 13 February 
and on 14 February due to a recurrent coronal hole. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
14 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
11 Feb    32

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for February:   4

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Feb    20    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly 
values or slightly enhanced. There is a slight chance of possible 
fades in the sunlit hemisphere throughout the next three days. 
Otherwise expect mostly normal or slightly enhanced HF conditions 
with MUFs near predicted monthly values. Noted isolated cases 
of sporadic E in the Australian and Antarctic regions with
particularly strong sporadic E in Brisbane. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.00E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Feb
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    2.4 p/cc  Temp:    27000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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