[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Feb 11 10:54:53 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 11 FEBRUARY - 13 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Feb: 91/36
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Feb 12 Feb 13 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 92/37
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Low over the the last 24 hours. Active
region 1045 (N23W40) produced serval B and C class x-ray flares
over the UT day. The magnetic signature of the spot group has
simplified to beta-gamma. Expect only B and C class flares for
the next three days. Active regions 1046 (N24E27) and 1047 (S18E42)
show simple magnetic complexity and are not expected to produce
any significant flares at this time. The solar wind ranged from
340km/s to 260 km/s over the UT day and is expected to remain
in this range or slightly above for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Feb : A K
Australian Region 6 22221122
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 4 11111122
Canberra 1 01110000
Hobart 5 22221111
Casey(Ant) 12 33-32233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 3 1010 1201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Feb 6 Quiet
12 Feb 6 Quiet
13 Feb 6 Quiet
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 9 February and
is current for interval 9-11 February. Geomagnetic activity was
mostly Quiet over the UT day with an isolated Unsettled to Actived
periods early in the UT day at high latitudes. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions for the next three days with a possibility of
isolated cases of Unsettled to Active levels of geomagnetic activity
at high latitudes only.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal
12 Feb Normal Normal Normal
13 Feb Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Feb 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
12 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
13 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 3 was issued on 9 February
and is current for interval 9-11 February (SWFs) . Ionospheric
conditions in the Australian region were mostly normal over the
UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly values or slightly enhanced.
There is a slight chance of possible fades in the sunlit hemisphere
throughout the next three days. Otherwise expect mostly normal
or slightly enhanced HF conditions with MUFs near predicted monthly
values. Noted isolated cases of sporadic E in the Australian
and Antarctic regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Feb
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 49900 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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