[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 February 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 9 10:54:58 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z FEBRUARY 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 09 FEBRUARY - 11 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Feb: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/-- 0743UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Feb: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Feb 10 Feb 11 Feb
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 96/43 96/43 94/40
COMMENT: Solar Activity was Moderate over the the last 24 hours.
Region 1045 (N23W18) continues to flare and as a complex
beta-gamma/delta magnetic class. It has produced an M4 magnitude
x-ray flare at 08/0743UT, as well as an M1 and M2 x-ray flare
and a number of C-class flares throughout the day. It is expected
to continue to produce M and C class x-ray flares with a slight
possibility of an a X class flare as long as the spot group has a
beta-gamma/delta magnetic complexity. A number of CMEs have occurred
over the over the the last three days. Their is a possiblility that
they may be geoeffective today 09 February and the following two days.
The solar wind ranged from 400km/s to 330 km/s over the UT day
and is presently 375km/s. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was mostly northward during this period. The solar
wind is expected to return to slightly elevated levels over the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22121012
Darwin 5 32120012
Townsville 4 22121012
Learmonth 4 22220002
Canberra 1 11010000
Hobart 2 21111001
Casey(Ant) 7 -3-32012
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Feb :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1000 0112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
10 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Quiet over the UT day
with an isolated Unsettled to Actived periods early in the UT
day at high latitudes. Expect mostly Unsettled conditions for
the next three days with a chance of isolated Active to Minor
storm periods due to to possible impending CME activity and elevated
solar wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
10 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Feb Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Feb 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for February: 4
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
10 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values
11 Feb 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Ionospheric conditions in the Australian region were
mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs near predicted monthly
values. Due to moderate solar activity expect possible fades
in the sunlit hemisphere throughout the next three days. Otherwise
expect mostly normal HF conditions with MUFs near predicted monthly
values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Feb
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 86100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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