[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 26 10:12:27 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 DECEMBER - 28 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Dec: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Dec 27 Dec 28 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: Solar wind speed increased from 325 to 410 km/s over
the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz
component ranged between +5/-7nT. Increase in solar wind stream
was due to weak recurrent coronal hole. Expect Very Low solar
activity for the next three days. Note, two new spot groups were
reported by Holloman and San Vito Solar Observatories over night,
locations N18E24 and S23W55.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22122322
Darwin 8 32112322
Townsville 8 3-112322
Learmonth 6 21122321
Canberra 6 12112321
Hobart 6 22222211
Casey(Ant) 11 3--32223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1210 1100
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Dec 6 Quiet
27 Dec 3 Quiet
28 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Observed Quiet to Unsettled conditions in the Australian/NZ
region. The Antarctic region observed Quiet to Unsettled levels
with isolated cases of Active conditions. Note, Unsettled period
was approximately between 15 and 18 UT due to the increase in
solar wind speed. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the next
three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Dec 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mildly depression at the mid to low latitudes,
particularly at night, due to a decrease in ionising radiation
resulting from very low solar activity for this period in the
solar cycle. Note, seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Dec
Speed: 325 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 25000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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