[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 December 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 25 10:08:37 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 DECEMBER - 27 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Dec:  79/19

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Dec             26 Dec             27 Dec
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: Solar wind speed ranged from 310 to 345 km/s over the 
last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component 
ranged between +5/-4 nT. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Dec: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Dec :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21111111
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           2   20101111
      Learmonth            4   31011111
      Canberra             2   21100110
      Hobart               2   21101100
      Casey(Ant)           9   3-322222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              0   0000 0000     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Dec     4    Quiet 
26 Dec     4    Quiet 
27 Dec     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Observed Mostly Quiet conditions in the Australian/NZ 
and Antarctic regions. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the 
next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
24 Dec    23

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for December:  34

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Dec    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Dec    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 Dec    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 

COMMENT: MUFs were mildly depression at the mid to low latitudes, 
particularly at night, due to a decrease in ionising radiation 
resulting from very low solar activity for this period in the 
solar cycle. Note, seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications 
at times. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Dec
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:    2.2 p/cc  Temp:    20100 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and 
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to 
receive this promotional material please email 
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list