[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 24 10:31:27 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 DECEMBER - 26 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Dec: 80/20
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Dec 25 Dec 26 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: Solar wind speed ranged from 295 to 320 km/s over the
last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component
ranged between +6/-2 nT. LASCO C2 imagery showed a CME first
observed on 23/0536UT image. STEREO COR2 imagery indicates it
to be Earthside directed, however it is unlikely to be geoeffective.
One spot was reported by Holloman Solar Observatory at S22W44
at 23/1604UT. Otherwise, the solar disc is spotless.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12211012
Darwin 5 22211112
Townsville 3 22101012
Learmonth 2 11111011
Canberra 1 00100002
Hobart 1 11110001
Casey(Ant) 7 23311112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 0 0000 0000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Dec 4 Quiet
26 Dec 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Observed Mostly Quiet conditions in the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Dec 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Dec 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mildly depression at the mid to low latitudes,
particularly at night, due to a decrease in ionising radiation
resulting from very low solar activity for this period in the
solar cycle. Note, seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Dec
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 24900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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