[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 December 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 27 10:15:56 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z DECEMBER 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 DECEMBER - 29 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Dec: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Dec: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Dec 28 Dec 29 Dec
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 80/20 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: Solar wind speed ranged from 430 to 370 km/s over the
last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz component
ranged between +/-5nT. Expect Very Low solar activity for the
next three days. Active regions 1136 and 1137 are not expected
to produce significant flares. Note, Holloman Solar Observatory
reported an emerging flux region at N12E05.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Dec: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 22121022
Darwin 5 22121122
Townsville 4 22110-22
Learmonth 4 22121012
Canberra 3 22100022
Hobart 3 22110012
Casey(Ant) 11 4-332122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1221 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Dec 3 Quiet
28 Dec 3 Quiet
29 Dec 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Observed mostly Quiet conditions in the Australian/NZ
and Antarctic regions. Expect mostly Quiet conditions for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Dec Normal Normal Normal
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Dec 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for December: 34
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
29 Dec 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs were mildly depression at the mid to low latitudes,
particularly at night, due to a decrease in ionising radiation
resulting from very low solar activity for this period in the
solar cycle. Note, seasonal sporadic E may degrade communications
at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Dec
Speed: 340 km/sec Density: 7.5 p/cc Temp: 35700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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