[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 27 09:32:24 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 27 AUGUST - 29 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Aug 28 Aug 29 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed ranged between 610-690 km/s and is
expected to remain elevated days one and two. The north-south
IMF component ranged between +/-4 nT. Region 1101 (N12E48) remains
an alpha group but has grown in size and increased background
x-ray flux levels. The region has a very slight chance of producing
C-class flares.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Aug: Mostly quiet to
unsettled. Isolated active levels observed at higher latitudes.
Estimated Indices 26 Aug : A K
Australian Region 11 33333211
Darwin 9 32333111
Townsville 12 33333222
Learmonth 11 32343211
Canberra 9 32332211
Hobart 11 32343211
Casey(Ant) 14 34432222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Aug :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 46 (Unsettled)
Canberra 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 20 5523 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Aug 10 Quiet to unsettled. Active levels still likely
at higher latitudes.
28 Aug 8 Mostly quiet. Unsettled with isolated active
levels at high latitudes.
29 Aug 5 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Aug 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced 00-04 UT,
then 15-30% depressed.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced 00-07 UT,
then near predicted to 20% depressed. Night spread F
observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
04-05 and 21 UT at Darwin. Night spread F observed at
Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F observed
at all stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed. Macquarie
Is riometer indicates absorption around 0315-0500 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
28 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
29 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F possible at all latitudes during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Aug
Speed: 661 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 184000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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