[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 26 09:33:17 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed ranged between 630-720 km/s and is
expected to remain elevated for the forecast period. The north-south
IMF component ranged between about +6/-7 nT. Region 1101 (N12E65)
remains magnetically classified as an alpha group with a very
slight chance of C-class flares. A south-west directed CME was
observed from STEREO A and B around 1124 UT but is not expected
to be geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 33243322
Darwin 12 33242312
Townsville 14 33243323
Learmonth 13 33243322
Canberra 12 33242312
Hobart 12 33242312
Casey(Ant) 18 44333432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 51 (Unsettled)
Canberra 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 47 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18 4433 4324
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 12 Quiet to unsettled. Active levels probable at
higher latitudes.
27 Aug 8 Quiet to unsettled. Active levels still likely
at higher latitudes.
28 Aug 6 Quiet to unsettled. Isolated active levels possible
at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-04 UT, then mostly
depressed 15-30%.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 25%
01, 05, 10-12 and 22-23 UT. Night spread F observed.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with night spread F.
Depressions to 25% 05-06 and 08-11 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% enhanced with
night spread F.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
27 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
28 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F possible at all latitudes during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 647 km/sec Density: 2.1 p/cc Temp: 294000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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