[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 28 09:30:39 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 28 AUGUST - 30 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Aug: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
28 Aug 29 Aug 30 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 75/13
COMMENT: Solar wind speed ranged between 615-690 km/s and is
expected to remain elevated day one. The north-south IMF component
ranged between +4/-6 nT. Region 1101 (N12E34) is stable in size
and complexity with a very slight chance of producing C-class
flares. STEREO and LASCO imagery show a CME erupting at 1139 UT
from the south-west. The ejection is not expected to be
geo-effective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Aug: Mostly quiet to
unsettled. Isolated active levels observed at higher latitudes.
Some minor storming at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 27 Aug : A K
Australian Region 12 23333322
Darwin 11 23333312
Townsville 12 23333322
Learmonth 13 23334322
Canberra 8 12332212
Hobart 9 12243211
Casey(Ant) 15 35433432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Aug :
Darwin 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 11 3432 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
28 Aug 8 Mostly quiet. Unsettled with isolated active
levels at high latitudes.
29 Aug 5 Mostly quiet. Unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
30 Aug 5 Mostly quiet. Unsettled with isolated active
periods at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Aug Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Aug Normal Normal Normal
30 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
27 Aug 21
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted month values with depressions to 30%
04-09 and 12-16 UT. Occasional night spread F
observed.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 15%
00-08 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
05-07 and 12-15 UT at Darwin. Night spread F
observed.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Night spread F observed
at most stations.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
06-09 UT at Macquarie Is.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
28 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
29 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
30 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed.
COMMENT: Spread F possible at all latitudes during night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 26 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+08 (high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:26%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Aug
Speed: 645 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 169000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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