[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 15 09:47:26 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Active region (AR) 1099 produced several B and C class
x-ray flares during the UT day 14 August. Expect this trend to
continue during the next few days until it rotates around the
west limb. The largest flare was a long duration C4.4 peaking
at 14/1005UT which may have been associated with a 4 degree
dissappearing solar filament noted just north east of AR 1099's
region center (reported by Learmonth Solar Observatory). San Vito
Solar Observatory reported a Type II sweep beginning at 14/0952UT.
No data available from LASCO during this period. STEREO COR1
Behind imagery showed a coronal ejection on its 14/1006UT image.
STEREO COR2 Ahead imagery showed a halo CME beginning at 14/1039UT,
however no data was available for COR2 Behind during this period.
Expect this CME to be geo-effective in approximately 3 days time,
17 August. Note GOES 13 proton flux measurement elevated to event
level for a short period, 14/1230UT, possibly resulting from
AR 1099 activity. The solar wind speed ranged from 450 to 400
over the UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between
+4/-2 nT over the last 24 hours. Expect a slight increase in
solar wind speed today 15 August due to narrow coronal hole rotating
to its geo-effective location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 11112211
Darwin 3 11111201
Hobart 4 11112211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 1201 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Aug 6 Quiet
17 Aug 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect geomagnetic activity to increase to unsettled
levels with isolated cases of active levels at high latitudes
due to an increase in the solar wind speed today 15 August. These
elevated conditions are not expected to last more than a half
of a day due to the narrowness of the coronal hole. Later in
the UT day geomagnetic activity is expected to return to mostly
quiet conditions with possible unsettled conditions at high latitudes.
On 17 August geomagnetic activity is expected to increase to
Unsettled levels again with Active levels expected at high latitudes
due to arrival of CME.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-poor
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
17 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Higher than normal levels of 10MeV proton flux detected
at 14/1230UT on GOES 13 satellite, HF communications may be
degraded during UT day, 15 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally weak ionosphere observed in the Antarctic
region during the local night time hours. Higher than normal
proton flux levels detected on GOES 13 satellite, this may
degrade HF communications at high latitudes. Noted variable
conditions in equatorial region, however mostly near monthly
predicted values. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions
next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 124000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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