[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 14 09:04:58 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 14 AUGUST - 16 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Aug: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Aug 15 Aug 16 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be Very Low over the next three
days. The solar wind speed increased from 350 to 440 over the
UT day. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between +6/-4
nT over the last 24 hours. Early in the UT day on 15 August expect
a bump in the solar wind due to a narrow coronal hole extending
from the northern equatorial region of the sun to the southern
pole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22111211
Darwin 2 22100101
Townsville 7 222-----
Learmonth 4 211-----
Canberra 2 110-----
Hobart 3 11111211
Casey(Ant) 7 222-----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 2211 1001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Aug 6 Quiet
15 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Aug 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Expect Quiet conditions today with a isolated cases
of unsettled conditions at high latitudes. Early in the UT day
on 15 August expect geomagnetic activity to increase to unsettled
levels with isolated cases of active levels at high latitudes
due to an increase in the solar wind speed. These slightly elevated
conditions are not expected to last more than a half of a day
due to the narrowness of the coronal hole. Later in the UT day
geomagnetic activity is expected to return to mostly quiet conditions
with possible unsettled conditions at high latitudes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Aug 28
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
15 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 27 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Generally weak ionosphere observed in the Antarctic
region during the local night time hours. Expect mostly normal
ionospheric conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A8.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Aug
Speed: 352 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 39000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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