[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 9 09:39:45 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 09 AUGUST - 11 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Aug: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Aug 10 Aug 11 Aug
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 82/23
COMMENT: No significant flare activity observed today. Solar
wind speed remained relatively steady at ~400km/s and the IMF
Bz component maintained a mildly Northward bias for most of the
day. There is a chance of further C-class flare activity from
AR 1093.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 11111011
Darwin 2 11111011
Townsville 5 12221122
Learmonth 2 12011011
Canberra 0 01010000
Hobart 1 11010000
Casey(Ant) 4 2-310110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Aug 5 Quiet
10 Aug 8 Quiet. Chance unsettled periods.
11 Aug 6 Quiet. Chance unsettled periods.
COMMENT: The IMF Bz component maintained a mildly Northward bias
for much of the UT day and the regional geomagnetic field was
quiet. Expect quiet conditions next three days. Chance of unsettled
periods days 2 to 3 if the CME observed 07 Aug passes close enough
to interact with the Earth's magnetosphere.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Aug 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Aug 25 near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
11 Aug 20 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Generally weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region local night
hours. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions next three
days with variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Disturbances possible S Aus/Antarctic regions days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Aug
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 80600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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