[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 August 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 8 09:51:13 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.0    1827UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug:  85/27


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug             09 Aug             10 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              82/23              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate. Active region 1093 produced 
a long-duration flare which reached M1 level at 1824UT. This 
was followed by a Type II radio noise burst with estimated sweep 
velocity 675km/s, and two distinct 10cm radio noise bursts at 1825 
and 1919UT. STEREO imagery shows a W-directed partial halo CME 
which has potential to become geoeffective within the forecast 
period. Solar wind speed declined from 450 to 400km/s over the 
UT day. The IMF Bz component remained mostly neutral. There is 
a chance of further C-class flare activity from AR 1093. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 07 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12211111
      Darwin               3   11111111
      Townsville           6   22221222
      Learmonth            2   11111001
      Canberra             1   01110001
      Hobart               2   11120000
      Casey(Ant)           7   33311111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2321 2132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug     5    Quiet 
09 Aug     5    Quiet 
10 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues to decline, with the 
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz component mostly neutral. Regional 
geomagnetic conditions were quiet with isolated unsettled periods 
at high latitudes. Conditions should remain mostly quiet days one 
and two. Possibility of a mild solar wind shock day three resulting 
in unsettled conditions. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    21

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values local day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
09 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
10 Aug    20    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions. 
Generally weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region local night 
hours. A period of disturbance observed S Aus/S Ocean areas 17-20UT. 
Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions next three days with 
variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Disturbances 
possible S Aus/Antarctic regions day three. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 467 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    92000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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