[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Aug 7 09:36:30 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 82/23
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 82/23
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low with only a few B-class
flares and occasional weak Type III radio noise events observed.
Solar wind speed declined steadily from about 600 to 450 km/s.
The IMF Bz component remained mostly neutral. Solar activity
is expected to remain very low with the chance of C-class flares
from region 1093.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 23112121
Darwin 6 23112121
Townsville 9 23223222
Learmonth 5 12113121
Canberra 2 12002110
Hobart 3 12102210
Casey(Ant) 10 33322--1
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 4301 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 6 Quiet
08 Aug 5 Quiet
09 Aug 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Solar wind speed continues to decline, with the
Interplanetary Magnetic Field Bz component mostly neutral. Regional
geomagnetic conditions were quiet at low to mid latitudes with
isolated unsettled periods from 03-06UT and 12-15UT observed at some
stations. The high latitude geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to
active. Isolated unsettled periods possible day one mainly at high
latitudes. Conditions should become generally quiet days two and
three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
08 Aug 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
09 Aug 15 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed all regions today. Periods
of sporadic-E observed Equatorial and S Aus regions. Generally
weak ionosphere Antarctic region local night. Expect mostly normal
ionospheric conditions next three days with mild depressions
possible Equatorial/N Aus regions and weak ionisation Antarctic
region local night hours.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 1.4 p/cc Temp: 107000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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