[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 August 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Aug 6 09:46:12 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 06 AUGUST - 08 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Aug:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Aug:  83/24


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Aug             07 Aug             08 Aug
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    84/26              84/26              84/26
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low. There was a C1-level flare 
at ~21UT. Solar wind speed remained steady at around 500km/s. 
The IMF Bz component remained mostly neutral. The anticipated 
second solar wind shock did not arrive and it is possible the 
two CME's observed on Aug 01 merged into a single front which 
arrived at Earth on Aug 03. Solar activity is expected to remain 
low with the chance of further C-class flares from regions 1093 
and 1094. 


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Aug :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   23122211
      Darwin               5   23112111
      Townsville           8   23222222
      Learmonth            7   33112211
      Canberra             3   22012110
      Hobart               5   22022211
      Casey(Ant)          10   33322312
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        26
           Planetary             42   6535 4464     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Aug     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Aug     6    Quiet 
08 Aug     5    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 11 was issued on 3 August and 
is current for interval 4-6 August. The anticipated second solar 
wind shock did not eventuate. Consequently, geomagnetic conditions 
declined steadily from the levels of Aug 03-04. Conditions were 
unsettled early in the UT day at low to mid latitudes, tending 
to quiet for the remainder of the day. At high latitudes there 
were unsettled intervals throughout the UT day. Unsettled periods 
possible day one as solar wind speed remains elevated. Conditions 
should decline to generally quiet days two and three. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF disturbances possible at high latitudes day one in 
association with elevated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Aug    19

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 20%.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for August:  27

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Aug    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
07 Aug    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
08 Aug    15    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Widespread mild depressions observed over the UT day, 
in contrast to the generally enhanced conditions observed on 
Aug 04. The anticipated continuation of solar wind disturbance 
now appears unlikely. Ionospheric HF support is expected to remain 
near predicted monthly values with the chance of variable localised 
depressions. Continuing disturbance expected Antarctic region 
day one. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Aug
Speed: 556 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    42600 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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