[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 August 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 10 09:50:34 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z AUGUST 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 10 AUGUST - 12 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Aug: 83/24
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Aug 11 Aug 12 Aug
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 84/26
COMMENT: Expect solar activity to be Very Low to Low over the
next three days. Active regions 1093 and 1096 are likely to produce
B-class x-ray flares and there is a moderate chance for an isolated
C-class flare. The solar wind speed ranged from 310-490 km/s
and is expected to remain in this range over the next three days.
The IMF was was between +/-5nT with a prolonged period of southward
directed Bz from 00-06UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Aug: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 Aug : A K
Australian Region 8 22223222
Darwin 8 22223222
Townsville 11 23323322
Learmonth 9 22223322
Canberra 6 22212222
Hobart 6 22112222
Casey(Ant) 11 23323232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Aug :
Darwin 8 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions today, 10 August
with a chance of Active levels at High latitudes due to expected
CME arrival. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions for the following
two days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
11 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
12 Aug Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Aug 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 27
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Aug 27 near predicted monthly values
11 Aug 27 near predicted monthly values
12 Aug 27 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable conditions observed Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Generally weak ionosphere observed Antarctic region local night
hours. Expect mostly normal ionospheric conditions next three
days with variable depressions possible Equatorial/N Aus regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Aug
Speed: 386 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 61400 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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