[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 26 09:33:38 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Apr 27 Apr 28 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: No flares were observed today. Solar wind speed remained
steady at around 360 km/s. IMF Bz fluctuated +/-2nT over the
UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 12110100
Darwin 1 11100101
Townsville 4 22211111
Learmonth 2 12110100
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 1 11100000
Casey(Ant) 7 33311110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3401 1121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Apr 5 Quiet
27 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet at low to mid
latitudes. Unsettled periods observed at high latitudes over
the first few hours of the UT day only. Expect quiet conditions
day one. Recurrence suggests unsettled conditions possible days
two and three due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream. Current
solar imagery suggests this feature may have declined since the
previous rotation.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Apr 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Variable during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15 to 25%.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions local day. Periods of strong sporadic-E conditions
Canberra and Norfolk Is. during local day and briefly at Niue
local evening. Generally weak ionospheric conditions Antarctic
region local night. Expect mostly normal conditions next three
days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 396 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 73800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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