[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 25 09:41:02 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: No flares were observed today. Solar wind speed declined
steadily over the UT day as the present coronal hole wind stream
rotates beyond geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 23112111
Darwin 5 23112011
Townsville 6 23122111
Learmonth 5 22113111
Canberra 1 12001000
Hobart 3 13012010
Casey(Ant) 7 33212121
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 13 5421 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 5 Quiet
26 Apr 5 Quiet
27 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet with isolated
unsettled conditions observed at some low-mid latitude stations
from 03-06UT. Unsettled to active conditions observed at high
latitudes 00-06UT. Solar wind parameters appear to be in decline
as the present coronal hole wind stream rotates beyond geoeffective
position. Expect mostly quiet conditions next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 31
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
27 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly variable ionospheric conditions observed Equatorial/N
Aus regions local day, slightly enhanced local night. Generally
weak ionospheric conditions Antarctic region local night. Expect
mostly normal conditions next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 439 km/sec Density: 2.7 p/cc Temp: 74800 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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