[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 24 09:44:28 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 24 APRIL - 26 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Apr 25 Apr 26 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 80/20
COMMENT: No flares were observed today. Solar wind speed remains
mildly elevated at ~450km/s. The Bz component of the IMF sustained
negative bias of -5 to -8nT early and late in the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 23 Apr : A K
Australian Region 7 33211112
Darwin 8 43211112
Townsville 8 33212122
Learmonth 7 -3222112
Canberra 2 22000001
Hobart 5 33111002
Casey(Ant) 9 43221112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Apr :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 29 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 18 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1110 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at
high latitudes.
25 Apr 5 Quiet
26 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: From 00-06UT the regional geomagnetic field was unsettled
at low to mid latitudes with active intervals at high latitudes.
Expect further isolated unsettled periods day one under the influence
of a mild coronal hole wind stream. IMF Bz sustained moderately
negative bias for some hours late in the UT day, indicating unsettled
to active conditions again possible early in the UT day 24 Apr.
Conditions should decline to generally quiet days two and three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Apr 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
26 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable ionospheric conditions observed local day
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Periods of sporadic-E conditions
local evening Cocos Islands region and spread-F at Hobart.
Extended periods of spread-F Antarctic region with generally
weak ionosphere local night. Expect mostly normal conditions
next three days with variable conditions possible
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Chance of extended degraded periods
Antarctic region day one.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Apr
Speed: 410 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 69200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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