[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 23 09:40:07 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 23 APRIL - 25 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Apr 24 Apr 25 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 80/20
COMMENT: No flares were observed today. Solar wind speed remains
mildly elevated at 400-450km/s. The Bz component of the IMF fluctuated
+/-5nT over the second half of the UT day with a sustained negative
bias of around -8nT at the time of report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 12110132
Darwin 4 12100132
Townsville 5 12111132
Learmonth 6 22210232
Canberra 2 01000022
Hobart 3 12000122
Casey(Ant) 10 33221332
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Apr :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 13 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1221 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at
high latitudes.
24 Apr 5 Quiet. Chance Unsettled periods at high latitudes.
25 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet with an unsettled
period from 18-21UT. Isolated unsettled periods observed at high
latitudes. Expect unsettled periods day one under the influence
of a mild coronal hole wind stream. IMF Bz sustained moderately
negative (-8nT) bias at the time of report issue, indicating
unsettled to active conditions possible early in the UT day 23
Apr. Conditions should decline to generally quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Apr 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 25 Near predicted monthly values
25 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions observed throughout
the region. Extended periods of spread-F conditions Antarctic
region with generally weak ionosphere local night. Expect mostly
normal conditions next three days with variable conditions possible
Equatorial/N Aus regions. Chance of extended degraded periods
Antarctic region days one and two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Apr
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 72200 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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