[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Apr 22 09:24:43 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 22 APRIL - 24 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Apr 23 Apr 24 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 78/17 78/17
COMMENT: No flares were observed today. The Earth entered a mild
coronal hole wind stream during the second half of the UT day
with a reversal in the phi component of the IMF and a trend towards
northward Bz component. Solar wind speed has maintained an upward
trend and is at 450 km/s at the time of report issue. Proton
flux declined to nominal levels over the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Apr : A K
Australian Region 6 12213211
Darwin 4 12112211
Townsville 7 12223221
Learmonth 5 12113211
Canberra 2 01102100
Hobart 4 02213200
Casey(Ant) 7 3-322111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 11 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1111 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Apr 12 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at
high latitudes.
23 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at
high latitudes.
24 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet with an unsettled
period from 12-15UT. Isolated unsettled to active periods observed
at high latitudes. Expect unsettled conditions days one and two
under the influence of a mild coronal hole wind stream. Recently
observed CME events may produce minor solar wind shocks with
brief active geomagnetic periods possible mainly at high latitudes.
Conditions should decline to generally quiet by day three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
23 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Apr 30
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
23 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
24 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions observed throughout
the region. Extended periods of spread-F conditions Antarctic
region. Mild night-time depressions observed Equatorial regions.
Expect similar conditions next three days. Chance of extended
degraded periods Antarctic region days one and two.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Apr
Speed: 336 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 60500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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