[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 21 09:36:51 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 21 APRIL - 23 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Apr:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Apr             22 Apr             23 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              82/23              84/26
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. There was a 
fast NE-directed CME late in the UT day 19 Apr, possibly associated 
with a disappearing solar filament in the NE quadrant. Solar 
wind speed showed a moderate upward trend over the second half 
of the UT day, with moderate (-2 to -6nT) fluctuations in the 
IMF Bz component. Proton flux also showed a minor upward trend 
over the same period. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 20 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12112211
      Darwin               4   12112112
      Townsville           5   12112221
      Learmonth            4   11023111
      Canberra             2   00012200
      Hobart               4   01113211
      Casey(Ant)           8   23222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            13   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1222 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at 
                high latitudes. 
23 Apr    12    Quiet to Unsettled. Chance Active periods at 
                high latitudes. 
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet with brief 
unsettled intervals observed at some stations. Expect unsettled 
conditions as small N and S hemisphere coronal holes rotate into 
geoeffective position. Recently observed CME events may produce 
minor solar wind shocks with brief active geomagnetic periods 
possible mainly at high latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
23 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Apr    22

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
22 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values 
23 Apr    15    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions observed throughout 
the region. Spread-F conditions before local dawn Darwin and 
Hobart. Mild night-time depressions observed Equatorial regions. 
Expect similar conditions next three days. Chance of extended 
degraded periods Antarctic region. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Apr
Speed: 368 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:    71600 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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