[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 20 09:44:41 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 20 APRIL - 22 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Apr 21 Apr 22 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 79/19 80/20 82/23
COMMENT: The visible solar disk remains spotless. There was a
SE-directed CME early in the UT day possibly associated with
a disappearing solar filament. Solar wind speed remained relatively
steady at around 360 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field was slightly southward over most of the UT day.
Small north and south hemisphere coronal holes are now rotating
into geoeffective position.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 19 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 13121111
Darwin 4 13121011
Townsville 5 13121111
Learmonth 5 23121110
Canberra 2 12020000
Hobart 4 13121001
Casey(Ant) 8 23321221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 18 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1101 0101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Apr 3 Quiet
21 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
22 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was quiet with an unsettled
interval from 3-6UT. Expect quiet conditions day one. Small N
and S hemisphere coronal holes now rotating towards geoeffective
position may produce mildly unsettled intervals days two and
three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
22 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Apr 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
22 Apr 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal ionospheric conditions observed throughout
the region. Mild night-time depressions Equatorial/N Aus regions.
Expect similar conditions next three days. Chance of isolated
disturbances Antarctic region days two and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Apr
Speed: 357 km/sec Density: 0.2 p/cc Temp: 56300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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