[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 19 09:32:37 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 19 APRIL - 21 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Apr: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Apr 20 Apr 21 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 79/19 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day.
One long duration B1.3 flare was observed. This flare
peaked at 0218UT. Solar wind speed gradually decreased
from 400 to 360 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz
component of IMF mostly stayed slightly positive upto
around 4nT. Solar activity is expected to remain
at very low levels for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Apr : A K
Australian Region 1 11100101
Darwin 2 11100102
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth - --------
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 01000001
Casey(Ant) - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs NA
Gnangara NA
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 1000 0011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Apr 3 Quiet
20 Apr 3 Quiet
21 Apr 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels on
all locations today. Similar levels of activity may be
expected for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Apr Normal Normal Normal
20 Apr Normal Normal Normal
21 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on most locations
today. Similar conditions may be expected for the next
three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Apr 13
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
20 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
21 Apr 15 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this
region for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Apr
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 71400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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