[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Apr 18 09:51:29 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 18 APRIL - 20 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Apr:  74/11

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Apr             19 Apr             20 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              79/19              80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. One long 
duration B2.1 flare was observed from 0437 to 0712UT. Solar wind 
speed gradually decreased from 420 to 380 km/s during the UT 
day today. The Bz component of IMF mostly stayed between +/-4nT). 
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the 
next three days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Apr: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11200021
      Darwin               2   11100021
      Townsville           5   11311121
      Learmonth           NA   NANANANA
      Canberra             0   00100010
      Hobart               1   00200010
      Casey(Ant)          NA   NANANANA

   NA=Not available
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          13   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice_Springs       NA
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2100 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Apr     5    Quiet 
19 Apr     4    Quiet 
20 Apr     4    Quiet 
COMMENT: Geomagnectic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels 
on most locations today. Mostly quiet levels of activity may 
be expected for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly at normal levels on most locations 
today. Similar conditions may be expected for the next three 
days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Apr    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:  20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
19 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
20 Apr    15    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions in Aus/NZ regions were mostly normal today. 
Nearly similar conditions may be expected for this region for 
the next three days. Some unexpected decrease in T-index value 
has been observed. The reasons for this decrease in T-index are 
not clear at this stage. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Apr
Speed: NA km/sec  Density:  NA p/cc  Temp:  NA K  Bz:  NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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