[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 27 09:54:15 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 27 APRIL - 29 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Apr: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Apr 28 Apr 29 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 78/17
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 360km/s and 320km/s over the
UT day. Bz ranged between +/-4nT. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 11110101
Darwin 1 11110001
Townsville 4 22111112
Learmonth 2 12010100
Canberra 0 00100000
Hobart 1 01110000
Casey(Ant) 3 12111101
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 3 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1200 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
28 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
29 Apr 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet over the last 24 hours.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions possible for the 27Apr-28Apr due
to a recurrent high speed coronal hole wind stream. Quiet conditions
expected for 29Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
28 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
29 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Apr 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
28 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
29 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions for all regions over the
last 24 hours, with variable ionospheric support for
Equatorial/Northern AUS regions. Continued sporadic-E
conditions for Norfolk Is. during local day. Similar HF
conditions are expected for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A3.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Apr
Speed: 369 km/sec Density: 1.1 p/cc Temp: 48100 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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