[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 6 09:55:37 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Apr             07 Apr             08 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    82/23              85/27              85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity 
is expected to remain at Very Low levels next three days with 
likely B-class x-ray flares and a slight chance for a C-class 
x-ray flare. The solar wind speed started the UT day, 5 April, 
at 500 km/s and jump to 750 km/s at around 0800 UT. The solar 
wind speed peaked around 800 km/s and is now steadily decreasing 
and is presently 640 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was +/-2nT 
until 0800 UT when it went southward and peaked around -11nT 
and returned to +/- 4nT around 1500 UT. The geoeffective postion 
of the coronal hole and the arrival of the halo CME occuring 
on 3 April which was associated with a long duration B-class 
flare and a disappearing solar filament appears to have had a 
combined effect on the Earth's magnetic field. 
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0754UT on 05 
Apr. 



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Major Storm 

Estimated Indices 05 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      31   23564533
      Darwin              27   23554533
      Townsville          27   23554533
      Learmonth           33   22565533
      Canberra            24   22464432
      Hobart              33   13565532
      Casey(Ant)          31   34564433
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr : 
      Darwin              40   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville          25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth           31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Alice_Springs       22   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Gnangara           160   (Severe storm)
      Canberra            60   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              63   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             25                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   3341 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Apr    12    Unsettled 
07 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 Apr     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Observed Active to Storm levels between 0600 and 1800UT 
through out the Australian and Antarctic regions. Peak storm 
levels occurred between 0900 and 1200UT. Maquarie Island, Hobart 
and the Antarctic region station reached Severe Storm levels 
during this period. Geomagnetic activity was due to CME arrival, 
high speed solar wind stream, and prolonged Bz component of the 
IMF. Expect geomagnetic conditions to wind down as the solar 
wind decreases and return to Quiet to Unsettle conditions over 
the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Fair           Poor-fair      Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
07 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
05 Apr    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Apr     0    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                40% 
07 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Apr    20    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: High latitude ionosonde stations showed weak to no traces 
during the local night time hours. Hobart should spread F during 
the local night. Expect possible depressed conditions for the 
mid to high latitudes due to storm level geomagnetic activity 
today, 6 April. Expect the HF conditions to be mostly normal 
over the following two days. 
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    1.2 p/cc  Temp:   122000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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