[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 April 10
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 7 09:48:15 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 07 APRIL - 09 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Apr 08 Apr 09 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels next three days with
likely B-class x-ray flares and a slight chance for a C-class
x-ray flare. The solar wind speed decreased from 650 to 540 km/s
over the last 24 hours. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field remained southward during this same period, peaking
at -8nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Apr: Unsettled to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 06 Apr : A K
Australian Region 21 33444433
Darwin 20 33353433
Townsville 25 34454433
Learmonth 30 33455543
Canberra 19 33443433
Hobart 23 234-5443
Casey(Ant) 16 33333433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Apr :
Darwin 30 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 10 (Quiet)
Learmonth 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice_Springs 19 (Quiet)
Gnangara 111 (Major storm)
Canberra 37 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 50 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 30
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 49 3447 6544
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Apr 20 active
08 Apr 12 Unsettled
09 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The Australian region geomagnetic activity ranged from
Unsettled to Minor Storm levels during the UT day 6 April, except
for Hobart station showed Unsettled to Major Storm levels. Maquarie
Island and the Antarctic region showed Unsettled to Severe Storm
levels. Expect activity to slowly dissipate over the UT day,
7 April with unsettled to Active coditions and isolated cases
of Minor Storm conditions due to high solar wind stream effects
and a prolong southerly Bz component of the IMF.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Fair-normal Poor-normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal-Fair Fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
09 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Apr 15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Apr 15 depressed 10 to 40%/near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 20 depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
09 Apr 20 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: High latitude ionosonde stations showed weak to no traces
during the local night time hours. Isolated cases of sporadic
E noted through out the Australian region. Expect possible depressed
conditions for the mid to high latitudes due to storm level
geomagnetic activity today, 7 April. Expect the HF conditions to slowly
return to normal over the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Apr
Speed: 676 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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