[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 April 10
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 6 09:55:21 EST 2010
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 79/19
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day. Solar activity
is expected to remain at Very Low levels next three days with
likely B-class x-ray flares and a slight chance for a C-class
x-ray flare. The solar wind speed started the UT day, 5 April,
at 500 km/s and jump to 750 km/s at around 0800 UT. The solar
wind speed peaked around 800 km/s and is now steadily decreasing
and is presently 640 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF was +/-2nT
until 0800 UT when it went southward and peaked around -11nT
and returned to +/- 4nT around 1500 UT. The geoeffective postion
of the coronal hole and the arrival of the halo CME occuring
on 3 April which was associated with a long duration B-class
flare and a disappearing solar filament appears to have had a
combined effect on the Earth's magnetic field.
A strong shock was observed in the solar wind at 0754UT on 05
Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: Quiet to Major Storm
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 31 23564533
Darwin 27 23554533
Townsville 27 23554533
Learmonth 33 22565533
Canberra 24 22464432
Hobart 33 13565532
Casey(Ant) 31 34564433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 25 (Quiet to unsettled)
Learmonth 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice_Springs 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Gnangara 160 (Severe storm)
Canberra 60 (Unsettled)
Hobart 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 25
Planetary 25
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 13 3341 2234
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 12 Unsettled
07 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
08 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Observed Active to Storm levels between 0600 and 1800UT
through out the Australian and Antarctic regions. Peak storm
levels occurred between 0900 and 1200UT. Maquarie Island, Hobart
and the Antarctic region station reached Severe Storm levels
during this period. Geomagnetic activity was due to CME arrival,
high speed solar wind stream, and prolonged Bz component of the
IMF. Expect geomagnetic conditions to wind down as the solar
wind decreases and return to Quiet to Unsettle conditions over
the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-Fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for April: 8
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 0 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
40%
07 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: High latitude ionosonde stations showed weak to no traces
during the local night time hours. Hobart should spread F during
the local night. Expect possible depressed conditions for the
mid to high latitudes due to storm level geomagnetic activity
today, 6 April. Expect the HF conditions to be mostly normal
over the following two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 485 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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