[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 April 10

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 5 09:31:52 EST 2010


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z APRIL 2010 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 05 APRIL - 07 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Apr:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Apr             06 Apr             07 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              85/27

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the UT day. A newly 
numbered region (1060, N23E57) rotated onto the visible disk 
but maintains a simple configuration. Solar activity is expected 
to remain at Very Low levels next three days. The solar wind 
speed remains elevated near 500km/s with the IMF producing some 
moderate (+/-5nT) fluctuations over the UT day. A high speed 
coronal hole wind stream is expected late on 06-Apr which may 
be associated with an extended Bz southwards IMF structure. The 
weak partial halo CME observed 03/0954UT is expected to arrive 
late 06 Apr, however the impact is likely to be low. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Apr: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 04 Apr :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   32313233
      Darwin              12   33313233
      Townsville          11   32313233
      Learmonth           11   32313233
      Canberra             7   22302222
      Hobart              12   33313233
      Casey(Ant)          14   4-323233
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           3   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            55   (Unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2110 2323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Apr     6    Quiet 
06 Apr    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
07 Apr    15    Unsettled to Active 

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled over the 
UT day. Expect mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions today (05-Apr) 
with isolated Unsettled periods, Unsettled conditions with isolated 
Active periods days 2-3 (06/07-Apr) in response to a high speed 
solar wind stream and the effects of a weak CME. Minor storm 
periods expected at high latitudes 07 Apr. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
06 Apr      Normal         Normal         Fair          
07 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Apr    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for April:   8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Apr    20    near predicted monthly values 
06 Apr    25    Near predicted monthly values to 30% enhanced. 
07 Apr    16    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: HF conditions mostly normal over the UT day with MUFs 
mostly near predicted monthly values to marginally enhanced, 
particularly overnight. Expect similar conditions today (05- 
Apr). Degraded HF conditions expected days 2 and 3 (06/07-Apr) 
due to increased geomagnetic activity, particularly at higher 
latitudes. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+07   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Apr
Speed: 512 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   113000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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