[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 24 09:52:54 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 SEPTEMBER - 26 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Sep: 77/16
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Sep 25 Sep 26 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Only region 1027 has increased in size slightly over the last
24 hours and both regions 1026 and 1027 magnetic complexity remains
unchanged. Solar wind parameters remain at low levels. Bz fluctuated
between +/-2nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to
be Very Low over the next 3 days with a chance of a C-class event.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 23 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 22100011
Darwin 1 11000002
Townsville 6 23111122
Learmonth 1 22000000
Canberra 3 33000000
Hobart 1 11101001
Casey(Ant) 4 22210111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 3 (Quiet)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1011 2101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Sep 6 Quiet
25 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Sep 11 Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Mostly
Quiet conditions expected for the next 2 days with possible Unsettled
conditions for 25Sep-26Sep due to the arrival of a high speed
coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
25 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
26 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for
mid to high latitudes. Equatorial regions experienced depressed
MUFs of ~20% during local night and Northern AUS regions had
depressed MUFs during local day. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with continued depressions of ~20% for low
latitudes.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Sep
Speed: 414 km/sec Density: 0.5 p/cc Temp: 59500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list