[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 September 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 25 09:52:43 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 SEPTEMBER - 27 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Sep:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Sep             26 Sep             27 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours. 
Region 1027 continues to slowly increase in size and both regions 
1026 & 1027 magnetic complexity remains unchanged. Solar wind 
speed was 300km/s at the time of this report. Bz ranged between 
-2nT and 4nT over the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be 
Very Low over the next 3 days with a small chance of a C-class 
event. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11101112
      Darwin               2   11001012
      Townsville           5   22211122
      Learmonth            1   11001001
      Canberra             0   00000001
      Hobart               2   11101111
      Casey(Ant)           3   11111112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            2   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Sep     7    Quiet 
26 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Sep     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet 
conditions expected for the next 24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled 
conditions with possible Active periods on 26Sep due to the 
expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. 
Quiet conditions expected 27Sep. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
26 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Sep    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Sep    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
26 Sep   -10    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 Sep    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for 
mid to high latitudes. Equatorial regions experienced depressed 
MUFs of ~20% during local night and Northern AUS regions had 
depressed MUFs during local day. Disturbed conditions for Antarctic 
regions between 11UT-20UT. Similar conditions are expected for 
the next 3 days with continued depressions of ~20% for low latitudes 
and disturbed periods for high latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:    23300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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