[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 23 09:53:12 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep: 75/13
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Sep 24 Sep 25 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 77/16 77/16 77/16
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Region 1026 was the source of a B3.6 x-ray event at 1057UT and
also a B4.2 at 2041UT. New region 1027 appeared over the last
24 hours. Both regions have simple magnetic complexity. The solar
wind speed is relatively unchanged at ~400km/s at the time of
this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-2nT over the UT day. Solar
activity is expected to be Very Low over the next 3 days with
further B-class events expected and a slight chance of a C-class
event.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 4 21211112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 21121110
Canberra 2 11111011
Hobart 4 11122111
Casey(Ant) 9 33322212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 8 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 3123 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Sep 6 Quiet
24 Sep 6 Quiet
25 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed over the last 24 hours. Quiet
conditions expected for the next 2 days with possible Unsettled
conditions for 25Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
24 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
25 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Sep -9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
24 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
25 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours for
mid to high latitudes. Equatorial regions experienced depressed
MUFs of ~30% over the entire UT day and Northern AUS regions
had depressed MUFs during local day. Similar conditions are expected
for the next 3 days with continued depressions of ~20% for low
latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 116000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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