[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 22 09:39:47 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 SEPTEMBER - 24 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Sep: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Sep 23 Sep 24 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 74/11 76/14 77/16
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
New region 1026 was the source of a B1.1 class event at 1256UT.
The solar wind speed increased from 380km/s at 0000UT to a max
of 480km/s at 1600UT and is currently ~420km/s at the time of
this report. Bz fluctuated between +/-8nT in the first half of
the UT day. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low over the
next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Sep : A K
Australian Region 8 22333111
Darwin 7 22232112
Townsville 10 32233222
Learmonth 7 22233110
Canberra 5 21232110
Hobart 8 22333111
Casey(Ant) 11 3-432211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Sep :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0100 1023
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Sep 6 Quiet
23 Sep 6 Quiet
24 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet conditions expected for the next 2 days with
possible Unsettled conditions for 24Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Sep Normal Normal Normal
23 Sep Normal Normal Normal
24 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Sep -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
23 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
24 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions over the last 24 hours with
only Northern AUS regions depressed during local day. Similar
conditions are expected for the next 3 days with possible depressions
of ~20% for low latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Sep
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 19700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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