[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 September 09

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Very low

Flares: None

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: The visible disk remains spotless. The solar wind speed 
is currently around 420 km/s. Solar wind speed should remain 
elevated for the next three days. 

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
with active periods at high latitudes. 

Estimated Indices 14 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   31111212
      Darwin               4   21110212
      Townsville           7   32221222
      Learmonth            5   31110212
      Canberra             2   21100210
      Hobart               4   21111211
      Casey(Ant)           7   3--21222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1121 1322     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 
16 Sep    10    Quiet to unsettled 
17 Sep     8    Quiet to unsettled 

COMMENT: Isolated active levels likely at high latitudes over 
the next three days. 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Fair-normal    Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Sep    -3

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Mostly 15-30% depressed at Niue. At Vanimo, near
      predicted monthly values 00-05 UT then 15 to 40%
      depressed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values with enhancements
      to 30% 12 to 20 UT.
      No Townsville data.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted montly values to 03 UT. No data
      after 03 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 
17 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values 

COMMENT: Depressions to 30% probable, particularly to lower latitudes.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.10E+04   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 295 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    16400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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