[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 16 09:29:48 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 SEPTEMBER - 18 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Sep: Very low
Flares: None
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Sep 17 Sep 18 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: The visible disk is spotless. The solar wind speed has
ranged between about 400 and 480 km/s. Solar wind speed should
remain elevated for the next few days due to the recurrent coronal
hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
with isolated active levels at high latitudes.
Estimated Indices 15 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 13212212
Darwin 5 13211112
Townsville 8 23222222
Learmonth 4 12112201
Canberra 3 02102201
Hobart 6 13212212
Casey(Ant) 9 24222212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Sep :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 3210 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Sep 10 Quiet to unsettled
17 Sep 7 Quiet to unsettled
18 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Isolated active levels possible at high latitudes on
days one and two.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Sep Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Sep Fair Normal Normal
17 Sep Fair Normal Normal
18 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Sep -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values at Niue with depressions
to 25% 00-02 UT and enhancements to 40% 07-11 UT.
Near predicted monthly values to 05 UT at Vanimo with
15-30% depressions 06-12 UT and 60% depressions 13-14
UT; no data after 15 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% at
Darwin 03-05 and 15-16 UT. No data for Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values with enhancements to 60%
around 12-20 UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values at Scott Base. No data
for Casey, Macquarie Is. and Mawson.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 30% probable, particularly at lower latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Sep
Speed: 392 km/sec Density: 4.1 p/cc Temp: 98600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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