[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 14 09:35:10 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 SEPTEMBER - 16 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Sep 15 Sep 16 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24
hours. The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind
speed stayed around 300 km/s until 1800 UT, then increased
to 360 km/s and stayed at this level for the remaining
time of the UT day today. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field stayed negative upto around
-5nT until 1700UT and then fluctuated slowly between +/-7nT.
This strengthening in solar wind stream seems to be due to
the anticipated effect of a recurrent coronal hole. Solar
activity is expected to stay at very low levels for the next
3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 13 Sep : A K
Australian Region 5 12111222
Darwin 4 12111212
Townsville 6 22211222
Learmonth 4 11111221
Canberra 2 11101111
Hobart 5 11112222
Casey(Ant) 6 22212222
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 4 0111 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Sep 6 Moslty quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible.
15 Sep 9 Quiet to unsettled
16 Sep 9 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels
for the last 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated
unsettled periods are expected on 14 September with quiet
to unsettled conditions on the following two days due to the
effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a recurrent
coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Sep Normal Normal Normal
15 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
16 Sep Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations on 13 September with periods of presence of
sporadic E-layer on low latitudes. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected on most locations for the
next three days with the possibility of minor to moderate
degradations on high latitudes on 15 and 16 Septebmer.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by
20% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values
15 Sep -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
16 Sep -8 near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
10%
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal across Aus/NZ
regions on 13 September. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days with some possibility of periods of minor
MUF depressions in the Southern Aus/NZ regions on 15 and
16 September.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Sep
Speed: 304 km/sec Density: 2.0 p/cc Temp: 35900 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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