[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 11 09:14:25 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Sep 12 Sep 13 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed stayed
between 290 and 320 km/s for most parts of the UT day today.
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed
between +/-4 nT almost the whole day today. Solar activity
is expected to stay at very low levels for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Darwin 3 12111101
Townsville 7 32222112
Learmonth 2 110-----
Canberra 0 00001000
Hobart 2 11111101
Casey(Ant) 4 12211111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 7 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 1 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Sep 3 Quiet
12 Sep 3 Quiet
13 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
13 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations on 10 September with some periods of minor
to mild degradations at high latitudes and presence
of strong sporadic E-layer on low latitudes. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected on most locations
for the next three days as no significant variation in
the ionospheric conditions is expected during this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Sep -10
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 30%
during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted montly values to depressed by 15%
during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Sep -7 near predicted monthly values
12 Sep -7 near predicted monthly values
13 Sep -7 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal across Aus/NZ
regions on 10 September. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 20700 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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