[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 September 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 12 09:43:14 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 SEPTEMBER - 14 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Sep:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Sep             13 Sep             14 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed stayed 
between 280 and 320 km/s for most parts of the UT day today. 
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed 
negative upto -6nT between 0800 UT and 1900UT. Bz stayed 
close to the normal value before and after the above mentioned 
period of negative Bz. Solar activity is expected to stay 
at very low levels for the next 3 days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Sep: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Sep :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12112222
      Darwin               4   12111112
      Townsville           6   12122222
      Learmonth            5   22012221
      Canberra             2   01011111
      Hobart               4   11112211
      Casey(Ant)           6   12222222
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              2   0000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Sep     3    Quiet 
13 Sep     3    Quiet 
14 Sep     6    Moslty quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible. 
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last 
24 hours. Similar conditions are expected for the next 
three days with some posibility of isolated unsettled 
periods on 14 September. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most 
locations on 11 September with periods of presence of 
strong sporadic E-layer on low latitudes. Mostly normal 
HF conditions may be expected on most locations for the 
next three days as no significant variation in the ionospheric 
conditions is expected during this period. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Sep    -4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for September:   0

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Sep    -5    near predicted monthly values 
13 Sep    -5    near predicted monthly values 
14 Sep    -6    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal across Aus/NZ 
regions on 11 September. Similar HF conditions may be expected 
for the next 3 days with small possibility of isolated periods 
of minor MUF depressions in the Southern Aus/NZ regions. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Sep
Speed: 302 km/sec  Density:    2.5 p/cc  Temp:    20600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------


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