[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 10 09:26:32 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 SEPTEMBER - 12 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar wind speed stayed
between 290 and 310 km/s during the UT day today. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field stayed close
to the normal value (between +/-2 nT) almost the whole day
today. Solar activity is expected to stay at very low levels
for the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Sep : A K
Australian Region 2 12101011
Darwin 2 12100001
Townsville 5 12211122
Learmonth 2 12101000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 1 11101001
Casey(Ant) 4 22211011
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Sep 3 Quiet
11 Sep 3 Quiet
12 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was quiet over the last 24 hours.
Similar conditions are expected for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Sep Normal Normal Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Sep Normal Normal Normal
11 Sep Normal Normal Normal
12 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal on most
locations on 09 September with some periods of minor to
significant degradations at high latitude and presence
of sporadic E-layer on low latitudes. Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected on most locations for the next
three days as no significant variation in the ionospheric
conditions is expected during this period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Sep -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values to depressed by 15% during local
day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day with
periods of degradations.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values
11 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values
12 Sep -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions remained mostly normal across Aus/NZ
regions on 09 September. Similar HF conditions may be expected
for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Sep
Speed: 322 km/sec Density: 3.3 p/cc Temp: 35800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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