[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 4 09:16:26 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk is spotless. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed increased
steadily after ~15UT to above 450km/s following the arrival of
a recurrent high speed wind stream. Associated with this was
an increase in total IMF however fluctuations in IMF Bz were
mostly small and above 0nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to unsettled
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11111211
Darwin 4 11100322
Townsville 7 22211322
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 2 01000211
Hobart 3 11111211
Casey(Ant) 5 22211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 2100 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions over the last 24
hours becoming Unsettled after 15UT following the arrival of
a high speed solar wind stream. Expect Quiet to Unsettled conditions
04 Sep with isolated Active periods at high latitudes, before
a return to mostly Quiet conditions 05 Sep.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep -5
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 2 near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
06 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 hours
with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. Expect MUFs mostly
near predicted monthly values at mid and high latitudes 04 Sep
with some variability in MUFs at low latitudes. Degraded HF
conditions likely at high latitudes 04 Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.70E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 363 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 33000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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