[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 3 09:12:20 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Spot group 1025 has decayed. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed remains near
350km/s and IMF Bz is stable near 0nT. A recurrent coronal hole
wind stream is expected 03 Sep.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 12101111
Darwin 2 12101101
Townsville 6 22212222
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 01001100
Hobart 3 11102111
Casey(Ant) 6 23211211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 4 1001 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 12 Quiet to unsettled
04 Sep 8 Quiet to unsettled
05 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the last
24 hours. Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected next two days
(03-04 Sep) with isolated Active periods possible at high latitudes
on 03 Sep due to a recurrent coronal hole wind stream.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep -4 near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs were
slightly depressed after local dawn in the equatorial regions.
Expect similar conditions 03 Sep with some degraded HF conditions
possible, particularly at high latitudes, due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 387 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 21400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
Occasionally IPS sends email promoting IPS products and
services to its mailing list customers. If you do not wish to
receive this promotional material please email
no-spam at ips.gov.au with the subject header:UNSUBSCRIBE"
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list