[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 2 09:06:26 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
Spot group 1025 (N17E23) remins a stable BXO. Solar activity
is expected to be Very Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind
speed continued to decline over the UT day to 380km/s and IMF
Bz remained stable near 0nT. A high speed coronal hole wind stream
is expected 03 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 4 21112111
Darwin 3 21211011
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 1 11011000
Hobart 3 11112111
Casey(Ant) 5 22212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2111 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Sep 12 Unsettled
04 Sep 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours with some Active periods at high latitudes. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected next two days (02-03 Sep) with
Active periods at high latitudes on 03 Sep due to a recurrent
coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep -4 near predicted monthly values
03 Sep -4 near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs were
slightly depressed after local dawn in the equatorial regions
and enhanced overnight in S.Aus/NZ. Mostly normal HF conditions
expected 02Sep. Degraded HF conditions possible 03Sep, particularly
at high and mid latitudes in response to coronal hole related
activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 429 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 71300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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