[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 31 August 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 1 09:06:04 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 31/2330Z AUGUST 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 01 SEPTEMBER - 03 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Aug: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Sep 02 Sep 03 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible solar disc remains spotless. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed declined
steadily over the UT day to just over 400km/s and IMF Bz remained
relatively stable near 0nT. A high speed coronal hole wind stream
is expected 03 Sep.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 31 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22212111
Darwin 4 22212110
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 4 21212110
Hobart 6 31222111
Casey(Ant) 6 2-312211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Aug :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 20 (Quiet)
Canberra 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 26 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 19 2132 2643
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Sep 5 Quiet
02 Sep 5 Quiet
03 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with some Active periods at high latitudes.
Quiet conditions expected next two days (01-02 Sep) with
Unsettled conditions on day 3 (03 Sep) due to a recurrent
coronal hole wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Aug -4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for August: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
03 Sep 0 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs were
slightly depressed after local dawn in the equatorial regions
and enhanced overnight in S.Aus/NZ. Normal HF conditions
expected 01Sep-02Sep.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Aug
Speed: 409 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 84200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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