[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 September 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 5 09:05:32 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z SEPTEMBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 SEPTEMBER - 07 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Sep: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Sep 06 Sep 07 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the last 24 hours.
The visible disk remains spotless. Solar activity is expected
to be Very Low for the next 3 days. The solar wind speed remains
at 480km/s under the influence of a weak recurrent solar wind
stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 23222211
Darwin 6 23222210
Townsville 9 33222222
Learmonth - --------
Camden - --------
Canberra 3 22211100
Hobart 7 23222211
Casey(Ant) 11 34322221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Sep :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 7 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1011 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Sep 5 Quiet
06 Sep 4 Quiet
07 Sep 3 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions over the last
24 hours under the influence of a weak recurrent solar wind stream.
Expect a return to mostly Quiet conditions for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Sep 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG/Niue Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for September: 0
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Sep -4 near predicted monthly values
06 Sep -4 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values in the
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions 04 Sep with some variability and overnight
depressions in MUFs in the N.Aus/equatorial regions. Degraded
HF conditions were observed at high latitudes. Expect mostly
Normal HF conditions 05 Sep with some minor MUF depressions in
S.Aus/NZ.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Sep
Speed: 337 km/sec Density: 0.7 p/cc Temp: 24100 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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