[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 October 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 26 10:52:19 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct:  76/14


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Oct             27 Oct             28 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13
COMMENT: Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours with 
region 1029 the source of a C1.5 flare at 0226UT as well as minor 
B-class events. Solar wind speed increased steadily from 420km/s 
at 0000UT to reach a maximum of 490km/s before falling to be 
400km/s at the time of this report. The decrease in solar wind 
parameters is due to the current coronal hole high speed wind 
stream moving out of geoeffective position. Bz, the north-south 
component of the interplanetary magnetic field decreased in magnitude 
to fluctuate between +/-2nT over the UT day. Low solar activity 
is expected over the next few days with further C-class events 
and possible M class from region 1029. 




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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22222211
      Darwin               5   22222111
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            5   21222111
      Canberra             4   22222100
      Hobart               8   22233211
      Casey(Ant)          10   3-422221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   0011 1242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Oct     6    Quiet 
27 Oct     5    Quiet 
28 Oct     3    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes and Unsettled for high 
latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected for the next 
3 days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
27 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   
28 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair   

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Oct     2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day,
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
27 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
28 Oct    -5    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24 
hours with depressed periods during local day and night for 
Equatorial regions. Normal conditions for Northern AUS and Southern 
AUS/NZ regions. Disturbed periods for Antarctic Regions. Continued 
sporadic E effects for low latitudes between 07UT-19UT. Depressed 
MUFs 10%~20% expected for low latitudes over the next 3 days 
and further disturbed conditions for high latitudes. Mostly normal 
conditions expected for mid latitudes with continued sporadic 
E for low latitudes. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+05   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 387 km/sec  Density:    1.5 p/cc  Temp:    30800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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