[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 09

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 27 10:44:27 EST 2009


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct:  81/22

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Low solar activity was observed over the last 24 hours. 
The GOES solar x-ray flux instrument detected a C1.2 class flare 
at 26/1906UT as well as several B-class flares from Boulder region 
1029. Holloman Solar Observatory also detected an associated 
H-alpha subflare at 1903UT. At 1629UT this region had 24 spots 
and an area of 170 mils with a beta-gamma magnteic configuration. 
Expect the flaring trend to continue for the next three days. 
Solar wind speed varied between 380 and 425 km/s over the last 
24 hours and is presently 395 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has mostly remained between +/-2nT. 
The solar wind is expected to remain near or below 400 km/s for 
the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Oct :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22121112
      Darwin               3   11111112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            3   11121111
      Canberra             2   11110011
      Hobart               3   11111111
      Casey(Ant)           9   33-32212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct : 
      Darwin              33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice_Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   3111 2110     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct     4    Quiet 
28 Oct     4    Quiet 
29 Oct     4    Quiet 

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the 
last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes and Unsettled to Active 
conditions for high latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected 
at all latitudes for the next three days. 

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Oct     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:   1

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct     1    near predicted monthly values 
28 Oct     1    near predicted monthly values 
29 Oct     1    near predicted monthly values 

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)   
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 416 km/sec  Density:    0.8 p/cc  Temp:    72000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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