[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 27 10:44:27 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 81/22
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 Oct 28 Oct 29 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Low solar activity was observed over the last 24 hours.
The GOES solar x-ray flux instrument detected a C1.2 class flare
at 26/1906UT as well as several B-class flares from Boulder region
1029. Holloman Solar Observatory also detected an associated
H-alpha subflare at 1903UT. At 1629UT this region had 24 spots
and an area of 170 mils with a beta-gamma magnteic configuration.
Expect the flaring trend to continue for the next three days.
Solar wind speed varied between 380 and 425 km/s over the last
24 hours and is presently 395 km/s. The Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field has mostly remained between +/-2nT.
The solar wind is expected to remain near or below 400 km/s for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 22121112
Darwin 3 11111112
Townsville 7 22222222
Learmonth 3 11121111
Canberra 2 11110011
Hobart 3 11111111
Casey(Ant) 9 33-32212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct :
Darwin 33 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5 3111 2110
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 Oct 4 Quiet
28 Oct 4 Quiet
29 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed over the
last 24 hours for low to mid latitudes and Unsettled to Active
conditions for high latitudes. Mostly Quiet conditions are expected
at all latitudes for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
29 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 Oct 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 Oct 1 near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 1 near predicted monthly values
29 Oct 1 near predicted monthly values
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 416 km/sec Density: 0.8 p/cc Temp: 72000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
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