[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 25 10:47:58 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 25 OCTOBER - 27 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Oct: Very Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Oct 26 Oct 27 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours
with GOES10 xray flux data indicating possible minor B-class
events from 20UT. Solar wind speed increased steadily from 380km/s
at 00UT to be ~420km/s at the time of this report. Bz, the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field increased
in magnitude from +/-2nT from 00UT-16UT to fluctuate between
+/-7nT with no sustained southward periods. Very Low solar activity
is expected over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 24 Oct : A K
Australian Region 11 22223333
Darwin 11 22223333
Townsville 11 22223333
Learmonth 10 21223333
Canberra 7 01223232
Hobart 8 11223232
Casey(Ant) 13 23432233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Oct :
Darwin 14 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 9 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8 3214 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Oct 7 Quiet
27 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours. A sudden geomagnetic impulse was observed
at 0704UT. Quiet conditions observed for high latitudes from 00UT-07UT
followed by Unsettled to Active. Quiet conditions for mid low
latitudes from 00UT-12UT followed by Unsettled conditions. Quiet
to Unsettled conditions expected for 25Oct due to recurrent coronal
hole effects. Mostly Quiet conditions for 26Oct-27Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
27 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Oct -15
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day,
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours with only depressed conditions during local day and night
for Equatorial regions. Normal conditions for Northern AUS, Southern
AUS/NZ and Antarctic Regions. Continued sporadic E effects for
mid to low latitudes between 07UT-19UT. Depressed MUFs 10%~20%
expected for low latitudes over the next 3 days and possible
disturbed periods for high latitudes. Mostly normal conditions
expected for mid latitudes with continued sporadic E for low
to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Oct
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 2.5 p/cc Temp: 74000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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