[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 October 09
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 24 10:52:58 EST 2009
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z OCTOBER 2009 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 24 OCTOBER - 26 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Oct: 73/9
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 Oct 25 Oct 26 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Very Low solar activity observed over the last 24 hours.
Solar wind speed ranged between 370km/s-400km/s over the UT day.
Bz, the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field ranged from +/-7nT with sustained southward periods of
-6nT between 00UT-01UT and 06UT-09UT. Very Low solar activity
is expected over the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 23 Oct : A K
Australian Region 9 33232212
Darwin 8 33132112
Townsville 10 33232222
Learmonth 9 33232212
Canberra 7 23132111
Hobart 8 23232211
Casey(Ant) 14 35-32212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Oct :
Darwin 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice_Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 14 3324 2144
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 Oct 9 Quiet to Unsettled
25 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed over
the last 24 hours with isolated Active periods for high latitudes.
Quiet to Unsettled conditions expected for 24Oct-25Oct due to
recurrent coronal hole effects and mostly Quiet conditions for
26Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
26 Oct Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 Oct -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island/Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 1
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
25 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
26 Oct -5 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions observed over the last 24
hours. Depressed conditions during local day for Equatorial,
Northern AUS and Antarctic Regions. Normal ionospheric support
for Southern AUS/NZ regions. Enhanced sporadic E for mid to low
latitudes. Periods of depressed MUFs 10%~20% expected for low
latitudes over the next 3 days and disturbed periods for high
latitudes. Mostly normal conditions expected for mid latitudes
with possible enhancements during local night as well as continued
sporadic E for low to mid latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+04 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Oct
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 60300 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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